You’ve probably heard about the rise of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
These markets allow you to test your powers of prediction. You can bet on when a war will end, which party will control the House or Senate after the midterms, or whether Joe Rogan will say “dude” 20+ times in his next podcast episode.
You can win a lot of money or, more likely, lose a lot of money. But you’re probably not going to gain much in the way of self-awareness.
So today we want to introduce you to a very different kind of prediction market.
You’re not going to get rich playing this market. But you might get something even better: a deeper understanding of your intuition, your assumptions, and your own power of prediction.
We call it the inner prediction market.
It’s a concept we first learned from the self-improvement author Daniel Pink.
Here’s how it works: write down a set of predictions about what your life will look like six months from now.
What will your family life look like?
What will your relationship look like?
What will your work look like?
What will the world look like?
We’ve been doing this exercise for over a year now, and when it’s time to read our six-month predictions, it feels a little like opening a present as we wonder, “What did our past selves say?”
For example, six months ago Kaley predicted, “We had a great time in Hawaii for spring break.” A sensible prediction, given that we booked our trip the previous fall.
Wrong.
We had to cancel the flight the day before to avoid a massive tropical storm that ripped through the island.
She was, however, right to predict, “Busy Love is in. I love the ‘joint’ creative nature of it.”
Six months ago Nate predicted, “I have started playing piano again and practice most days. It is a source of joy in my life.”
Also incorrect.
It has been months since Nate last sat down at the piano to practice.
He did, however, have one standout prediction — not about life, but about football: “The Broncos win their division and their first playoff game. But, ultimately, they fail to make it to the Super Bowl this year.” If only he’d put money on that parlay.
Why invest 30 minutes to do this?
First, testing your predictive powers against reality cultivates a special kind of wisdom.
You get to see how many of the stories running through your mind — stories that feel like ironclad truths — actually rest on flimsy foundations. This comes with a healing dose of humility that makes it easier to question the stories that create stress in your life.
Second, you learn when to trust your intuition and when to question it. Maybe you’re surprisingly good at predicting the future state of your relationships, but a terrible prognosticator of world events and market fluctuations.
That’s important data that can help you make better decisions about your life, your relationships, and your work.
So how exactly do you play the inner prediction market?
Follow these three steps.
Tools
1. Imagine your future
Set aside 30 to 60 minutes. Begin by allowing your mind to time travel into the future.
It’s six months from now.
What does your life look like?
As you envision this future world, break your predictions into categories. We recommend something like:
Personal life
Family
Intimate relationship
Work
Money
The world
Feel free to come up with your own categories.
2. Write down your six-month predictions
In a Word file or Google Doc, write your predictions underneath each category.
We like to use bullet points, with somewhere between three and five predictions for each category.
For example, in addition to his Broncos forecast, Nate wrote down the following predictions about the state of the world:
“The markets remain flat or perhaps even slightly down. There are just too many headwinds with inflation, tariffs, and uncertainty.”
“Progress in the realm of AI turns out to be much slower than most people anticipated.”
Wrong and wrong.
But the point here is to have several predictions under each category.
3. Set a six-month reminder
Once you close the document, don’t open it again for another six months.
To help yourself remember, you can send the document to yourself using the scheduled-send feature in your email. Or you can simply add a calendar reminder with an alert for six months from now.
You will most likely forget all about this practice.
But in six months, you’re in for a real treat.
You get to open the document and see whether you were right about the changes that happened in your life, your relationship, your career, and the world.
Think of it like investing in an emotional index fund. It requires 30 minutes of work today, but over the long run, the returns can be surprisingly large.